Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 80436.836627 84907.864688 89375.604565 94171.818950 99171.626286 104226.731329 109720.752628
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 73363.011325 80228.508566 87278.701505 95049.485391 103363.783918 111982.553770 121581.893916
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 68195.015180 76700.859015 85625.576787 95666.845700 106628.145036 118209.058861 131347.874059
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 63830.712702 73523.024570 83879.036476 95732.649033 108889.084286 123007.889763 139268.440015
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 61051.275116 71785.044209 83434.526277 96965.760855 112197.014289 128758.322090 148072.619028
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 57714.053174 69176.078279 81797.716249 96657.678282 113601.319752 132245.618260 154236.954639
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 55914.022518 68168.709950 81837.224325 98121.774243 116899.401180 137776.566986 162643.451417
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 53996.313051 66899.081071 81465.362717 99013.568221 119461.165878 142414.068682 170001.037225
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51790.860949 65175.390067 80462.869066 99077.650979 120985.955271 145803.717581 175887.694908
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49662.010261 63441.046794 79356.147283 98933.512537 122194.265369 148771.861396 181248.679549
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48748.074236 63108.765810 79860.782400 100653.379029 125564.326829 154242.164534 189530.885417
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 47888.351748 62791.720410 80341.971922 102311.927104 128841.461876 159599.850900 197697.819998
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46519.558780 61822.290566 80022.782062 103010.892182 130998.425902 163686.692694 204450.590618
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44838.358986 60407.426043 79112.053645 102950.425577 132213.079690 166642.926175 209869.916565
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43511.462129 59385.540592 78639.427539 103386.963460 134001.528806 170270.780098 216095.200447
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 42065.738931 58159.473665 77865.681142 103408.125014 135247.719640 173223.952458 221501.979977
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 41313.012410 57789.061275 78136.237081 104708.672017 138058.298597 178075.436083 229227.204379
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39851.263986 56451.124573 77140.440232 104378.671172 138813.362698 180397.927386 233863.155472
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 39320.451875 56307.069097 77646.261014 105934.863477 141919.912464 185613.981137 242068.971068
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38551.965944 55820.646772 77689.043040 106882.818290 144252.567814 189877.353856 249119.409585
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 37442.945621 54845.125565 77067.781690 106950.914880 145451.781134 192724.144099 254418.978481
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 36293.908686 53780.453015 76298.153383 106797.682731 146345.850664 195176.179588 259224.965284
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36017.059942 53885.667294 77055.286008 108625.809463 149779.835457 200826.682429 268058.768271